Illawarra Population Growth Rebounds

Good news for the regional economy, but more pressure on housing

New population figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) highlight a double-edged sword for the Illawarra in coming decades.

Figures released in April show that the Illawarra population grew by 3,410 new residents in the twelve months ending June 2022. This included 1,781 overseas migrants who chose to settle in the region.

Overall, during that financial year, the Illawarra population grew 1.1 percent, a result that is slightly higher than the long-term average over the past 20 years. According to NSW Government projections, the Illawarra population is now forecast to grow by more than 90,000 people by 2041.

That result offers many positive outcomes for the region but also raises major considerations, says RDA Illawarra Policy Manager Alex Spillett.  

“While population growth fuels our economy and helps close the skills gap, it also puts pressure on the local housing market”, he said.

“These figures indicate we will require more than 40,000 new dwellings by 2041 at what would be historically high completion rates for construction, at a time when materials and tradespeople are both expensive and in short supply.”

Mr Spillett said a post-COVID resurgence of overseas migrants to the Illawarra is welcome as they historically comprise more than 60 percent of the region’s population growth, and more than 80 percent of growth in Wollongong.

While COVID border closures caused a net exodus of overseas migrants, the trend changed last year with overseas migrants forming 51 percent of the Illawarra’s population growth and 91 percent for Wollongong.

The ABS categorises the region’s population growth by three sources: Natural Growth (births minus deaths); Internal Migration (people moving between local government areas) and Overseas Migration.

Natural growth accounted for a population increase of 1,060 and internal migration for a further 569 people. The addition of 1,781 people through overseas migration resulted in the overall population growth of 3,410.

Mr Spillett said internal migration softened considerably in the latest results following a peak in 2020-21.

“COVID prompted an exodus of people from Sydney into surrounding regions, including the Illawarra,” he said. “But that trend has reversed and, after a net influx of more than 1,850 internal migrants in 2020-21, last year the number fell to only 569, with the majority settling in Shellharbour.”  

Similarly, a spike in natural growth increases during COVID has reversed, falling from 1,290 to 1,060.

ABS Regional population, Estimated resident population and components, Local Government Areas, New South Wales